Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 17.225351 19.791632 22.804475 26.655114 31.524295 37.588893 45.901720
2025-02-16 14.382924 17.572267 21.687099 27.561681 36.055755 48.476501 69.320628
2025-02-23 12.498992 15.843562 20.416836 27.433007 38.565756 56.929666 93.429913
2025-03-02 11.173066 14.559071 19.398835 27.259293 40.732855 65.459905 123.409053
2025-03-09 10.291072 13.732648 18.846427 27.590621 43.709311 76.617162 169.078312
2025-03-16 9.305563 12.616155 17.665795 26.613429 43.988975 82.432128 207.949999
2025-03-23 8.676478 11.956382 17.096829 26.555357 45.996783 93.152618 279.111281
2025-03-30 7.926313 11.031691 15.980533 25.303992 45.180056 96.453017 328.710407
2025-04-06 7.241078 10.150866 14.844787 23.843313 43.559554 96.902563 368.012184
2025-04-13 6.699621 9.458332 13.962153 22.746937 42.534303 98.778973 423.526906
2025-04-20 6.836018 9.868548 15.012228 25.626937 51.868709 140.886678 1030.894696
2025-04-27 6.686644 9.788753 15.179502 26.720035 57.114209 174.621872 2208.585824
2025-05-04 6.220915 9.156345 14.305817 25.490925 55.713620 179.256446 3050.375491
2025-05-11 6.046619 9.013557 14.335686 26.304744 60.745404 223.420050 11408.157568
2025-05-18 5.782817 8.692774 13.990551 26.187669 62.852741 255.712086 63063.732656
2025-05-25 5.538791 8.389345 13.649468 26.024961 64.794470 291.945115 NaN
2025-06-01 5.363777 8.196948 13.508976 26.334746 68.604105 353.972525 NaN
2025-06-08 5.085542 7.799761 12.921769 25.420842 67.495821 369.926649 NaN
2025-06-15 4.909151 7.578988 12.677459 25.366500 69.821425 431.650942 NaN
2025-06-22 4.645431 7.183052 12.042743 24.194657 67.182419 428.259942 NaN
2025-06-29 4.380438 6.773898 11.358241 22.824680 63.409784 404.918759 NaN
2025-07-06 4.160950 6.441113 10.816601 21.794837 60.903138 397.054095 NaN
2025-07-13 4.270378 6.727723 11.596763 24.497238 76.124158 760.531189 NaN